01.19.05
Updated: 2004 vs. 2005 Dodgers
Will the starting lineup be better than in 2004? If you just look at the numbers, not much. CBS SportsLine.com ranks players based on offensive and defensive numbers and shows glaring problems on offense, but an improved pitching staff. Those numbers come with tremendous variables, however. Overall, I’m seeing hope for improvement.
The Dodger offense in 2004 (which didn’t include Steve Finley and did include Juan Encarnacion and Paul LoDuca) came in at 468, compared to the projected starting lineup this year at 412. The big drop offs come from David Ross replacing Paul LoDuca, Hee Sop Choi replacing Shawn Green, and Jose Valentin replacing Adrian Beltre. Meanwhile Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew are big improvements.
Behind the plate the numbers from either David Ross or Paul Bako can’t be worse than they were last year, so expect an improvement there. And they’re holding the position until Dioner Navarro is ready.
In terms of negative variables, Drew could get hurt, Choi could continue to be disappointing, Kent could see his numbers drop, Valentin could have age catch up with him and Izturis could go back to his non-hitting ways.
Kent and Valentin are stopgap acquisitions until Dodger youth is ready to make the jump. One named mentioned is Antonio Perez, who has been pretty solid in the minors as a shortstop. He is not expected to play there in the majors and could come to the Dodgers and play 3rd base. If Choi disappoints, Kent moves to first Valentin goes to second.
Starting pitching should be much better, primarily because the Dodgers get to remove the negative rating of Hideo Nomo. Derek Lowe had the fifth best year last year of the projected starting five, though it’s certain he won’t be the number five pitcher. That belongs to Kazuhisa Ishii, unless he loses the job to Elmer Dessens, Edwin Jackson, or Wilson Alvarez. Even with Ishii, the new staff comes up much better than last year’s, 218 to 147.
Relief pitching loses Guillermo Mota, so using just the top three from last year the Dodgers slip from 99 to 87. Eric Gagne, of course, is a wash.
For this year any optimism hinges on J.D. Drew staying healthy and productive and Derek Lowe using his sinker well in L.A., San Francisco and San Diego. As I’ve mentioned in another post, Lowe was hot and cold last year, getting hot in the playoffs. I think he’ll have a great first year.
Next up, a similar look at the Mariners.