01.23.05
Mariners — 2005’s version of the 2001 Texas Rangers?
The addition of Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre have got people talking World Series up here in Seattle.No doubt those were great moves and should help keep fans in the seats. Seattle fans have been extremely supportive of the team since 1995 (when Ken Griffey Jr. legged it home to beat the Yankees) and figure to stay that way unless the Mariners go through a few consecutive years like the one we just witnessed. Though improved, any talk of the post-season is way premature. Unless this team’s arms improve dramatically, the Mariners can count it good if they break .500. Of course, that would be good for the fans, because for much of the year the team would be in contention. Last year they were pretty much out by the end of May, finishing the season with a 63-99 record just three years after winning 116 games.
In talking about prospects for 2005, if one were to ask if it will be better, I would ask how it could be worse? Offensively, there were only three infields worse than the collection of guys who played alongside Bret Boone. Mariner infielders combined to hit .242 with 63 homers in 2004. Bret Boone hit .251 with 24 homers. If he plays the same, that means Beltre and Sexson would have to hit 40 between them to surpass 2004’s team. Beltre hit 48 homers by himself last year and also hit .334. I think his numbers will be down this year, but he would have to really tank for the Mariners to be worse in the infield. Sexson was a .270 hitter in Milwaukee and hit 45 homers twice, 29 and 30 the other years he was healthy.
Pokey Reese at short isn’t much of an addition offensively, but he’s got a very good glove and should make for a good combo with Boone. Last year Rich Aurilia had a decent glove but limited range and prospect Jose Lopez hasn’t learned the position well enough to be the everyday starter. Lopez is expected to eventually get the full-time job once he improves his defense. Lopez only hit .232 last year in 207 at bats in Seattle, but hit .295 in Tacoma. He’s 20 years old, so he’s got time to grow.
The Mariner outfield was the fifth best offensively in 2004. This year it could be Ichiro in right, Randy Winn in center and Raul Ibanez in left. Combined they hit .324 last year, but that includes Ichiro’s .372. Winn hit .286 and Ibanez hit .304. The other idea, and seemingly most likely, is to put Ibanez at DH, Winn in left and Jeremy Reed in center. Reed was a good hitter in the minors and did well when he came up to Seattle. His real plus appears to be his glove. Such a move would likely mean fan-fave Bucky Jacobsen would not get his AB’s. If he has a good spring he could be trade-bait.
The problem is pitching. Bobby Madritsch pitched in 15 games in 2004, lasting an average of just under six innings per game. He won six, lost three and had a 3.27 ERA. He was the ace of a disastrous staff. Joel Pineiro was next best with a 4.67 ERA. Jamie Moyer came finished with an uncharacteristic 5.21 and Ryan Franklin had a 4.90. With a better defense up the middle this year these guys all may improve, perhaps surpassing the Colorado Rockies. The Mariners starters ranked 27 out of 30 last year. Ouch.
The relievers ranked 24th. Not much of a relief at all. Eddie Guardado is back and he has been a good reliever. He had a 2.78 ERA, but given the dismal Mariner season he only had 41 appearances, and only converted 18 of 25 save opportunities. Not exactly Gagne numbers. Ron Villone was next with a 4.08 ERA, appearing in 56 games and posting an 8-6 record. The staff is pretty much all back and Poulsbo (my current locale) native Aaron Sele returns.
The 2005 Mariners could be this year’s version of the 2001 Rangers — all offense, no pitching. That didn’t work out well for Texas.
However, defense may be the factor that improves this team from 63 wins to, say 83. For the Mariners to hope for the post-season, however, they’re going to have to hope some team repeats what the Diamondbacks and Mariners did in 2004, completely tank. Randy Johnson could have made enough of a difference for the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, or Twins to get them a world title. Freddy Garcia could have made a difference for a playoff team too. I’d say the Cardinals could have benefitted in the series but they got swept and one guy isn’t going to fix that. The Mariners would then have to trade prospects, a decision that will be made based on how realistic a shot they have come trade deadline. It will also depend on who they have to trade, which might be a short list.
Bottom line: The Mariners will compete, but the Angels should be the favorite in the West. I don’t see the M’s doing well enough to get a wild-card spot.